[dmaul1114]

Originally Posted by Kali Yuga

Netbooks took a few years to reach those sales levels (~33 million sold last year), and most netbooks are pretty cheap -- $350 or so -- whereas tablets will likely cost much more, particularly at the outset. Especially considering that there aren't really any slates out yet, odds are that "tens of millions" getting sold in 2010 are pretty slim. 2011 may be another story.

Agreed. I don't see this year being huge for them. Price is better than expected with the iPad starting at $499 that will put pressure on other companies to keep prices down.

So by 2011-2012 there will probably be a good bit of tablets in the $300-400 netbook price range.

And, of course, slates could turn out to be a niche whose importance is vastly inflated by the tech oracles -- much like their immediate predecessors, namely tablet pc (the ones with a keyboard attached).

I do think that's a strong possibility. I'm in the niche that wants/needs a tablet/slate, being an academic with a need to read and mark up A4 pdfs, word documents etc.

I wasn't in the niche for tablet PCs (with keyboard) as they're too big, bulky, hot etc. to hold and comfortably read and mark up documents. And the battery life was pretty short since they were full powered laptops--where as a tablet only can be less powerful and get longer life as it doesn't need to be a full fledged PC in terms of processing power for what I'd use it for.

Plus, the idea that tablet/slate vs ebook reader sales is a zero-sum game is a rather primitive one, especially if reader costs continue to fall.

Agreed. It's not an either or proposition. Plenty of room for both types of devices. I think tablets will have some impact on the large screen dedicated readers like the Kindle DX or Que. I was mildly interested in them, but not at all after seeing the iPad. If tablets are going to be in that price range, I'll wait for one that fits my needs vs. paying more for a big screen e-ink device that I'd only use for work related reading.

But portable e-ink devices I don't see getting hit too much. They were always really only going to appeal to the avid reader niche--as you have to read enough to make a dedicated reader a device you have any interest in owning. And for that crowd, e-ink will probably trump all the tablet features in enough people to keep at the very least a sizable niche of people who want to read on e-ink or some other reflective display.