[Yoshi 1080]

Originally Posted by emellaich

Sorry that I'm responding late to this, but I don't have the same opinion that you do Calvin-c. Apple was in the game before Microsoft and the IBM PC and the reason that apple lost was the same reason that (I hope -- no bias here - grin) they will lose the current market.

The beginning of the computer industry is absolutely not comparable with today's situation.

Apple has always had more polished products because of their tight control of their products. But, as much as people like to bash Microsoft about its closed system, MS's openness is what won it the market. You could buy any hardware from any manufacturer and run windows. There were many more app's available on Windows machines.

That was not the reason for Microsoft to take over the PC market. Microsoft did not succeed because of so-called ”openness”, but because of clever business strategies. It began when IBM agreed to license Microsoft's not-yet-existent operating system (MS-DOS) instead of buying it, because it wrongly believed that the money was earned with hardware and not with software anyway (there is a very famous quote, don't find it currently). The IBM-PC quickly gained market share through low quality at low prices, not through openness or anything else. It was simply cheaper, partly due to its components and partly due to the competition between PC-clone makers.

The next big hit for Microsoft was to basically give PC manufacturers Windows for free, which led to a market penetration with Windows PCs. Then they abused their monopoly by making adhesion contracts. Again, openness had nothing to do with it. The industry was stupid enough to catch the bait and the costumer didn't really have a chance anyway.

Apple lost market share because it could and would not compete at these low prices.

I'd recommend watching the movie Pirates Of Silicon Valley.

Todays situation is vastly different from then. The main differences are that Microsoft is carefully watched by the EU and other organizations and therefore can't dictate the market anymore as they did in the past; consumers have also (finally) become aware of the often mediocre quality of MS products; and, lastly, Apple products have become much less expensive than they used to be.

Superior ergonomics + good technology + competitive prices = win

This is all speculation, but my prediction is that android will be the long term winner in the field because of its openness. I'm watching the same thing I saw with the Apple/Mac versus IBM-Dos/Windows. Android is cruder, there is fragmentation in the Android market, but there is choice.

That's funny considering that Android has been in the market for some time now and until this day could not gain any significant market share. The future doesn't look any better either, the growth of market share in pretty low. Even the techblog Engadget questions the current situation of Android.

I'm sure it will stay for a long time and will be adopted by several manufacturers (Sony-Ericsson with Rachael being a prominent example), I just don't see it at the top. In the long term I predict the smartphone market to be led by Apple, followed by Palm, and then by Android devices. Google would have to overhaul Android substantially to change this situation. I don't think Windows Mobile can recover from the past years, especially if Microsoft cuts backwards compatibility.

For example, where is the iphone with a keyboard (for my kids)? I believe there will be a Android/Chrome or possibly a Windows7 tablet from (Acer/HTC/HP/Dell/Archos/Toshiba/Samsung/LG/Sony/Hanlin/Netronix/Someone) that is better for me than the single solution from Apple. Although, no doubt, Apple will be near the top.

Apple has never served everyone. They pick out markets they are interested in and ignore the rest. In my opinion that is a better strategy then to flood the stores with ”me-too” products. But obviously because of that, Apple products can't satisfy everyone.