Quote:
Originally Posted by Teddman
Said it before, and I'll say it again: As wildly successful as the iPod & iPhone have been (including nano and Touch versions), it hasn't spelled the end of the "traditional mp3 player." You can still buy a Sansa Clip, Creative Zen, Zune, etc.
iPad is not going to spell the end of the tradional e-ink reader either. There will always be a market for dedicated readers with e-paper, even if it's not the market leader.
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The difference is that:
1. MP3 players were not a niche device when convergent devices that play MP3's with possible expectable battery life started becoming available.
2. Many people do not want to run down their phone/PDA battery by playing MP3's, which consume a considerable amount of battery life if you are playing them continuously.
3. MP3 players are not very expensive for the most part and if you are not getting a "smart phone" for other reasons, it is more cost effective to have the separate MP3 player.
If any one of the above were not true (especially the first one) it is very possible that dedicated MP3 players would be nearly nonexistent. The advantages that dedicated ebook readers have on the other hand are:
1. Battery life. (The caveat with this is that, other than a relatively small segment of the market, 10 hours is more than sufficient for one day. Since this is the quoted battery life watching video it should get at least this amount of battery life reading. If the battery life numbers are not accurate, all bets are off, but apple has a history of being accurate with battery life numbers.)
2. Read-ability of the screen without eyestrain/in direct sunlight. (This is not a big factor for many people. Even here on MR there are plenty of people thaat like e-ink for the battery life it provides and do not consider readability an issue on some other screens. As for direct sunlight, people I know with iPhone's say that while it is washed out a bit and not ideal, it is usable in direct sunlight. So, unless you do allot of reading in direct sunlight this may also not be much of a detriment.)
3. Possible price point. (This has not come to fruition yet, but it is possible that dedicated ebook readers could become cheap enough to make them a "competitive" option. If this happens and if ebook readers can stop being a niche market before converged devices take over 90%+ of the possible market then they have a chance. However, I think that the current market for ebook reading devices has probably gotten maybe about 10% of the possible market. This makes it so that, with the current situation, it will not take many converts from dedicated ebook readers to make it so that most e-ink devices have to low a profit margin to be worth while.)
All of the above being said, 1 or 2 dedicated readers will probably still survive much like the PDA (unless they stop being a niche market soon enough, then a wider variety will likely survive and prosper). The question is how long those one or two survive once they have made it that far (For instance, I am not sure how much longer HP will continue to make dedicated PDA's and apples iPod touch is really a converged device, as an MP3 player that also does many other things well, rather than a true PDA in my opinion). Ebook readers may fare a little better than PDA's, but I do not think they will fare much better unless they can get out of being a niche market before other devices take over the market.
Of course, I could be wrong (and I hope I am).
