Quote:
Originally Posted by John Bailey
No.. You are absolutely right. It's about marketing and shiny things and stupid people who buy a brand instead of a device. Nike have been sucking money from them for years.  |
Okay, going to modify my prediction for iPad versus eBooks.
Though said in jest I think John is correct - the marketing and the shiny thing (the iPad) WILL sell and it will open up new business opportunities for consumption of text media on devices that are bigger than an iPhone, have more functionality than a Kindle, are not quite a Netbook.
So what the iPad does is connect to the "cloud" (hate that term) and has the POTENTIAL to burrow a shortened path from the publisher to the reader. So my prediction is that eBooks (and books) will change over time once these devices become more common:
o authors will contact their publisher(s) and will hand over shortened manuscripts (a book like the 17 chapter Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone will become a 6 chapter book)
o authors won't take six months to a year to write a book - they will be expected to turn around the next 'book' in a series in two to three months
o publishers will have a stable of artists who crank out colored art to be included in these electronic-only, shortened 'books'.
So not only will you see immediate release of new 'books' for these devices you will not even see the book anywhere near a physical press.
Reasoning:
You have already seen it happen with video rental stories (direct to DVD movies) and it has already happened with video games ('snackable' category of video games).
So the prediction is...
more electronic books, of shorter length, and the text word has to give way some to make room for illustrations. Books delivered over the internet to your ASUS or APPLE or whatever device you prefer. Bookstores take it even more on the chin.
This is my prediction for eBooks thanks to the iPad. The phrase "curl up with a good book" will survive, but the understanding is you are not curling up with your printed book, nor are your curling up with your Kindle (okay, some of the readers here on these Forums will still be doing such but you will be in the minority). Also you will not be curled up for hours and hours and hours.
Once iPad version 5 gets beefier I would expect the illustrations might have to make way for short, short animations - like Harry Potter playing 'football' on his broom or some such.
Once this trend begins and the "new media" starts to flow the device category hardware will become even more desirable because that is the only way the left-out-in-the-cold consumer can be part of the latest "Harry Potter" release. So sort of a chicken-and-egg synergy at work.
My apology if someone else made this prediction on this thread and I missed it. Would not mind you referencing your post so I could go back and read it, if this happened.
*** EDIT ***
ALSO, for Reasoning, you have also already seen this happen with Music. I recall reading Albums don't sell so well any more, it is the sales of the individual songs slowly surpassing those of the entire album.
I have heard the music publishers hate this trend.