The concept of "winning" in this context is somewhat absurd, imo.
The only real advantage that a "winner" will have is some additional leverage with the publishers, and that's really about it. Bigger market share does not guarantee higher profitability, for example. And for a company like B&N, they'd be smarter if they focus on just making a really good device, good customer service, and good selection, to make sure they don't completely tank if/when pbook sales shrink.
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Originally Posted by Alisa
That's one way to go. Personally, I think the winners will be the folks who make multifunction devices that are as comfortable to read on as an e-ink reader and have enough battery life for us to not worry about charging all the time....
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Yeah, that's gonna be a while.
I'd add 6-12 months to the predicted release date of whatever Great Screen Tech is supposed to come up next (including color eInk).
Plus, it will need to be as thin and light as the current crop.
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Originally Posted by Alisa
The race to the bottom for prices on dedicated devices will just end up with poor quality devices and razor thin margins.
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Not necessarily; after all, the Kindle 2 dropped to $275 from $360 in less than a year, while adding international capability. I doubt price drops will be that rapid, but it's very common for technology to both improve quality and reduce price simultaneously.
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Originally Posted by Alisa
Most people don't read books but they do read magazines and blogs.
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Blogs maybe, but apparently magazine readership is tanking.
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Originally Posted by Alisa
By the time you could make a large, color reader for $150, I'm betting tablet hardware will have made the idea obsolete.
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Maybe, maybe not. E.g. by that time, epaper devices may also have other bonuses -- thinner, faster, better touch-screens, foldable, impact-resistant.
Besides, "obsolete" devices tend to stick around. AIO's and fax servers haven't replaced dedicated fax machines, copy machines, or printers; radios are still around; cameras still exist. Heck, film cameras still exist. Heck,
sheet film cameras, which pretty much have the same designs as they had close to 100 years ago, are still around....