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Originally Posted by Moejoe
I don't think book publishing will be here in 20 years time from now, not in any significant way. I believe what happened to poetry in the public consciousness will also happen to the novel and the short story....
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While I concur that certain art forms wax and wane, I don't see any particular reason why books as a whole will become more or less popular than they are now. For example, the "cell phone books" is a big craze in Japan, despite all the competing media. Social pressures that affect things like what art forms rise and fall in popularity are extremely difficult to predict.
Separately, while there will likely be many convulsions in the existing players in the book biz, I expect there will always be a role for publishers and editors (and reviewers), even if it's not quite the same as it was in the early 20th Century. There is too much poorly edited (and poorly written) junk out there, and filtration will always be needed. In addition, any writer who wants a national (let alone international) presence is going to need resources far beyond what an individual can muster, especially those just starting out.
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Originally Posted by Moejoe
You're never going to see another 'beat' poetry movement. There's never going to be another 'Grapes of Wrath' or 'To Kill a Mockingbird' moment in fiction.
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Why not? Just because other forms of entertainment are more popular?
The rise of TV did not necessarily thwart the cultural import of
On the Road, Slaughterhouse Five, All the President's Men, Beloved and so forth. Nor did the rise of radio stunt
Grapes of Wrath....