Okay, we've had a day to clear our heads and begin the long process of evaluating the Foleo. Almost universally, we didn't like what we first saw, and we strained a bit to understand what it can do and why someone would buy one. (My number one target market would be field organizations that already need phones, but also need to run applications like sales force automation or have access to centralized web applications or resources.)
So, while we are continuing to formulate our opinions, and as they shift this way and that way as we look at the Foleo from all kinds of angles, there is one interesting angle I haven't seen talked about much.
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If the Foleo is the start of a third line of business for Palm, then where is it headed, and how can we judge it?
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Clearly, we can't just look at the limited first version. If we were to judge the entire future of the Palm Pilot based on the first model, or the entire line of Palm Treos based on the first Handspring model, we would be missing the boat. Same for the Foleo.
So consider a theoretical Foleo device of the future:
* Relatively cheap
* A common, widespread version of Linux
* Light and convenient to carry
* Built like a rock and hard to break
* Like a UMPC, but based on Linux
* Makes email, web browsing, multimedia and document creation/editing simple
* Data and applications are tightly integrated with your smart phone. Applications have Foleo and smart phone components (sort of like some software has desktop and PDA components, but continuously in sync and more tightly coupled).
* Almost everything you want to do can be done via the fully capable and speedy web browser. In the future, there's no reason not to expect just about every kind of application to be available in a web application version. Future applications are also expected to be able to handle periods of offline activity. Multiple companies are working on that already, like Adobe and Google.
* Your smartphone is always with you, and when your Foleo is with you there is really no need to worry about moving data around or synching back up, because as far as you are concerned it's available the same way no matter which device you choose to use.
* Foleo's could ultimately become so cheap that you could leave them laying around the house. Libraries and schools could have them, in versions that work with any smartphone or application in conjunction with web versions of applications. They could become as commonplace as Tribbles on the Enterprise.
* Full fledged PCs could also eventually sync in similar manners to the Foleo/smart phone pairings, meaning that your smart phone has "everything you need" to personalize your computing experience, and you can use other computing form factors for more power and more input/output flexibility. Yet never have to worry about syncing.
* Your smart phone always gives you access, and on one data plan, no matter what computer you use.
I could go on and on, but you get the idea. It's sort of like a mobile and desktop and web computing utopia, and the Foleo concept is the key missing piece right now. It just has to mature. A lot!
If you think back about Hawkins' original statement about how this new line of business is a natural evolution of mobile computing and persistent connections and increased performance in mobile devices, it starts to make a lot more sense.
Maybe I'm still missing the boat (because I still have trouble understanding how the first generations of Foleo's are going to sell), but if we judge the future of the Foleo by ignoring technological limitations of today, you can't help but think that Hawkins may really be onto something. Maybe it's a little fuzzy even in his mind because of the uncertainty of exactly what can be done on the hardware/software/social side of things. But maybe he's still a great visionary, and is one of the first to try to verbalize the future of computing. Maybe with the Foleo, he's the first to take a step in that direction (well, technically Microsoft is probably pursuing a parallel direction with the UMPC and Win Mobile, but aiming at a more powerful client that runs Windows, of course).
Take a step back from the technology of this current generation of Foleo and see if maybe we can still see the forest despite the trees.