Thread: Death of E-Ink display?
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Old 01-01-2010, 07:36 AM   #93
Kali Yuga
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ekaser View Post
I AM arguing that a significant share of the e-reader market is GOING to be eaten up by multifunction devices (which may or may not be eInk devices, but they WILL be color, they WILL be fast, and their battery life WILL be shorter than a pure "eInk (or some successor) novel readers."
Perhaps, but that also depends on how we define that "market share."

For example, it's plausible that in a few years, the vast majority of US and EU citizens will own smartphones that run ebook software, and that far more smartphones are in circulation than epaper devices.

However, people do not purchase books in equal amounts. According to a 2008 Zogby Poll, 50% of the public buys 10 or fewer books per year; 24% buy 11-20 books per year; 14% buy more than 20 books per year. (Even if these particular numbers are inaccurate, I have no doubt that there is a smaller group that reads far more than the majority.) Chances are that those who read, say, 15+ books per year will want a device that is made for reading, rather than made to watch movies, and that these users will be a major force in driving ebook revenues -- far more than the people who buy 5 or fewer books per year, for example.

Separately, a device that is relatively free of distractions and can go days without a charge makes more sense to the education market (especially K-12) than one that shows movies, can receive email in class, and has a battery life shorter than a single school day. Education could easily affect the market share numbers.

Also, it doesn't quite make sense to say that ebook reading market share will be "eaten up" by multifunction devices, because this is not currently a zero-sum game -- especially with wireless technologies, which can sync your books across many devices. E.g. you may have your epaper device with you most of the time, but jump on your smartphone to read when you're stuck in a queue and didn't bring your epaper device with you. A tablet sold is not necessarily a lost sale for an epaper device, and there is obviously going to be growth in both sectors.

As to whether tablets specifically will flourish, I have my doubts. The current crop of tablets (i.e. laptops with touch screens) have some utility, but have hardly taken the market by storm. IMO that's much more about hype than interest by the general public, at least at the moment.
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