Quote:
Originally Posted by HarryT
Thanks, Sparrow; I obviously overlooked that one. It really doesn't change the general point, though, that flying really is amazingly safe compared to other means of transport.
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I agree - no question that it's about the safest for of transport in terms of deaths/serious injuries per passenger mile.
But the logic of concern is:
(a) if there's an incident (which is acknowledged to be rare), the consequences (as witness the BA incident) are potentially very bad
(b) (which is, I think the one the authorities are really concerned about) deliberate action (i.e. terrorism) distorts the probability. Planes are very reliable and, as we know, are very unlikely to suffer a catastrophic mid-air failure). The worry is the damage/destruction of a reliable machine by intention, which is not reflect in historic figures.
I'm not defending some of the (to me) irrational decisions that have been mad - just trying to illuminate some of the thinking behind it, much of which exemplifies the adage that logic is a way of being wrong with confidence.