I think there is a big opportunity for Indie's in 2010 and beyond. Not all Indie's but those that find a model that works to grabs the potential market. I can see specialty blogs becoming more important where people review books from a specific genre and people browse them for book recommendations. If they convert this to a small "ebook publishing house" they can create a market.
My experience is that Indie's want to actually sell ebooks so they sell in multiple formats, at reasonable prices and without restrictions. I've set a goal to read 6 new Indie authors next year and to continue to buy from the Indie author's I've found.
The big publishing houses are in for more trouble. All they are doing is putting up barriers to people buying the ebooks. They're slow to react and small specialty publishers have a big opportunity. How big was Amazon before the internet? How long did it take for the publishers to react? Have they yet?
I'm confused what massive marketing that you see from them? The only large scale advertising campaign I've seen from them have been for established author's like Dan Brown.
I see that they have established relationships with book reviewers in newspapers and magazines that get selected books reviewed, but you've seen what's happening to newspapers and magazines. This is diminishing value.
I see that they have established relationships with bookstores to get premium shelf space to promote new books, but I see this continuing to shrink in value.
They have connections in TV and radio to get authors interviews on shows but they've been killing this for ebooks by trying to charge insulting prices and now delaying availability. In the last year I've heard half a dozen authors interviewed and been interested enough to try to buy the book but I didn't because of the price.
They have existing contracts with established and well known authors that are guaranteed to sell and that's the only thing that will keep them alive. When those authors start going to freelance editors and publishing themselves the large publishing houses will disappear.
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