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Originally Posted by kovidgoyal
Gah there is no e-reader war. e-reader's are going to become commodities in the next year.
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How dare you express a rational opinion!
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Originally Posted by kovidgoyal
There's only so much you can do with an e-reader and the hardware released next year will do it all.... In a decade there will be no significant market for dedicated reading devices.
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Unfortunately, I have to disagree with your analysis here on a few points.
There is a fair amount of evidence that when presented with extremely similar options, people will place excess weight on what are essentially trivial differences. E.g. the differences between digital SLR's is actually very small, so various users will inflate those differences out of proportion of their actual utility in order to distinguish between the models and brands. Similarly, the differences between the existing ereader hardware is also quite small, as everyone is using eInk. Commodification also hasn't really mattered much in the computer space, there's still a lot of focus on branding. I don't see how even an equalization of hardware in the ebook reader space, or everyone selling the same open DRM-free format, will wind up changing the dynamic much, even if rationally it should.
Second, there are several reasons why dedicated ereaders are going to stick around:
• As long as they use eInk or a similar technology, they will have major advantages in terms of readability, power consumption and portability.
• Dedicated devices will be less distracting than a multi-function device (which, for starters, is likely to interrupt your reading with email notices, calendar reminders etc)
• They will be better for education, as it will be easier to lock the devices down (e.g. prevent students from web-surfing in the middle of class)
• Chances are the majority of punters will end up using some type of multi-function device. However, the majority of book buyers also only buy a small number of books per year. In contrast, the heavy book buyers (10+ books per year) will most likely want a dedicated, focused device with a high-quality reading service, and will most likely keep dedicated readers going for a long time.
As to whether there is a "war," it's clearly just the good ol' competing for dominant market share and mind share. Going after raw market share isn't always the best business strategy, especially if you gut your ability to turn a profit in the process of attempting to grab a greater share....