Quote:
Originally Posted by bookwerm
I stand on the reasoning that eBooks have been around for several years, and if they were going to cannibalize paper book sales (the way digital music did to CDs), it would be more apparent and prevalent than it is today.
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Then your reasoning is flawed as your historical accuracy is very poor. MP3 was ratified into standard in 1991, 12 years before iTunes Music Store even existed. I ripped my music on my slow 486 PC before a single standalone mp3 player was even feasible. Though at the time it took half a day to rip a single disc.
The fact of the matter is that technologies like this require time and conditions to be right before they become popular. You can't somehow link the fact that eBooks have been around for a while to any kind of rationalization that they won't have an impact on the market now.
The reality is eBooks have been around for forty+ years in one form or another, and in certain circles, have been the preference to print for many people. The only thing that has changed recently is big, well known companies pushing eBooks as a product that is friendly and enjoyable to regular consumers.
Standalone devices are better and more enjoyable to use. Consumers are accustomed to online ordering, and "trust" these stores now. People are creatures of comfort and convenience and are beginning to see just how much more convenient eBooks are. Finally, publishers want eBooks because they get more control over the distribution channels and can (attempt to) restrict resale markets more easily.
There are numerous reasons for an explosion of eBooks and every chance and opportunity that they will do to the book market what downloadable music has done to the music market. None of this is a bad thing. The music market is so much better now. I don't care how huge of a local cd store you had, you could never come within an order of magnitude the choice we have now with online music stores, not to mention the convenience of listening to samples or internet radio, etc. to discover things you never would've considered trying before.
I can sit in the comfort of my home and browse for new books, or, I can do the same thing in the break room at work between tasks as I unwind with a cup of chai. I can have the bookstore experience wherever I go. It's quite good!
Since this is just the beginning of popular awareness of eBooks you won't see much cannibalization right away. You'll see failed attempts at linking eBook sales to Paper book sales and so on, and lots of flailing and whining from old dogs as their market bites the dust. But eventually eBook popularity will demand changes in paper book distribution and marketing. My guess is that eBooks will displace trade paperbacks and the more obscure mass market. I suspect the entire romance section will become the main portal for people moving from paper to eBooks and probably be the first to leave the bookstore entirely in say... 5-7 years.
Eyes to the future my friend, not the past. Nobody pays attention to the past and it rarely dictates the actions of the future, especially in the frame of large market movements.
Interesting times...