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Even if your assumptions are right (low priced, $8 books only) and ignoring some of the sales open only to members (granted, these are usually 5-year members only), if you have to buy $200 worth of books to "break even" and you read 40 books a year, you would still be above the $200 break even point (assuming you stick with only $6 books; you'd be well above if your books averaged $8-$10). That also assumes you buy no subscriptions (not everyone does).
And for the free book - if you watch carefully, you can find one for 9.99, maximizing savings. Of course, if you are member and ignoring micropay, it would have been 8.50, so you aren't saving the entire $10 at that point (except that if you had not purchased the membership, it would have cost the entire $10, so you really are saving that $10 and only need to recover another $20 to break even ...).
Really, you can ignore micropay in your calculations, as you'll get less back, but spend less if you are a member. At 15%, that's about $135 in books for a break-even point, if you maximize the free book's value.
Of course, if you use cash to pay for new bestsellers, which average $15-20 each, that won't take long (and you'll then probably have the entire amount in micropay to spend on "cheaper" books, and you still get your discount on those and micropay when they are not having these crazy end-of-year sales on their entire catalog).
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