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Originally Posted by kennyc
Yep. Just like video, just like mp3.
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And unlike video games, streaming audio/video formats, video editing, AAC with or without Fairplay, camera lenses, any application written for a non-Microsoft OS, etc.
MP3 hasn't necessarily "won," since close to 70% of the online music sales market is AAC files (Apple). Devices do need to be able to play MP3's, but you don't have to sell MP3's in order to gain or hold a dominant share of the market. Nor does selling your wares in MP3 guarantee you will "win."
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Originally Posted by kennyc
If the Amazon format is so great then why did not Sony and B&N move to it (or at least Mobi).  |
Because there is zero advantage to Sony or B&N switching to AZW or Mobi. Since all 3 use DRM, B&N or Sony switching to AZW/Mobi won't increase interoperability and will effectively put them at the mercy of Amazon, which controls the Mobi format.
B&N and Sony switched to ePub due to competitive pressures. ePub isn't exclusively controlled by their biggest competitor, and also makes it easier for publishers to provide their retail sites with content, so hopefully this will expand the number of titles they can offer, and this is a good thing.
But I am not in any way, shape or form saying that Mobi is technically superior, or likely to be widely adopted. Heck, it almost certainly would be better if all the publishers had to do was issue one format and call it a day. My position is that that as long as Amazon has sufficient market share, they won't switch format, nor will they need to. Publishers will just put up with the inconvenience of issuing more two or three ebook formats (which is still easier than the current 4 or 5 formats). Some will grumble about it, but right now they're probably too worried about eroding perceptions of the value of their products, securing ebook rights, protecting international rights, and the imminent destruction of their current business models. I'm also saying that the concept of "winning" is generally flawed, since the ebook field will almost certainly be large enough to support multiple vendors and even multiple formats.
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Originally Posted by kennyc
History will judge. You have no better insight than anyone else.
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I don't claim to have a crystal ball, and obviously no one knows with perfect accuracy what will be the case.
I just hold the position that ease of use, title availability, customer service, product quality, price and branding all carry more weight in a potential customer's decision than "ePub vs AZW."; I've noticed that consumers often manage incompatible formats or standards with a fair amount of aplomb; I've noticed that Amazon can be fairly stubborn, and has a more complex and/or older ebook infrastructure than Sony or B&N; and I can't think of many (or any) instances where a vendor gained a pre-eminent share of the market
specifically because they switched to a common format. I.e. I'm fairly comfortable making a prediction that Amazon won't switch and won't suffer as a result -- even though, since my name is not Jeff Bezos, I could certainly be wrong about what Amazon will do.
And I suggest you read your own comments. You stated several times that "Amazon will lose" due to everyone else adopting ePub, then say "no one will know for another 20 years." So which is it? Please make up your mind, kthx.