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I think that the book - music analogies are flawed since the big money in digital music have been in selling devices and that's how Apple won; selling music was and is secondary for them, while selling iPods and iPhones is their core business with selling Mac's next
In books nobody yet showed that there are big money to be made selling ebooks; it's early times but I doubt it; will there be big money selling devices - again maybe or maybe not but again it's early times and the Kindle is good but not great so i doubt it will get the brand recognition of the iPod/iPhone and sell in the zillions
My bet is that the traditional book business is going to scale down massively the way the music business has since I just do not think the money are there in the digital world to sustain the pre-digital/physical model, while on the other hand new book offerings will go up since it will be much easier to offer them as Lulu, Smashwords and the like show
I see only a downward path for big publishers, while B&N, Borders and the other big book chains will need to reinvent themselves drastically as destinations - essentially coffee shops with things to read - to survive
Amazon is essentially a non-physical company - their tons of warehouses are peanuts as cost goes comparing with the prime locations and the rent that goes with them of BN/Borders - so I think that it will thrive selling anything they can
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