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Originally Posted by kennyc
You're off target.
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No, actually, I'm pretty much squarely on target.
Right now music is probably the best parallel, since it is well into the transition to digital and has several similarities to ebooks.
Apple launched its music service using a rarely-used format with a DRM system that locked users into Apple devices (iPod) and software (iTunes/Quicktime). Despite the format issue, they have dominated online music sales (which is a huge chunk of the "digital music market," and since those figures include streaming services, I don't know what else you are referring to) and, as I also pointed out, has captured 1/4 of the
overall music sales in the US, including physical CD sales.
Users also don't often ask a lot of questions about digital video formats, or what game engine their favorite FPS uses, and so forth.
As to the "general computing" market, it's difficult to compare the Amazon/ebook situation to the computing market. E.g. Apple has very different types and forms of competitors (e.g. Dell, HP, IBM, and countless others on hardware; Microsoft and Linux, which have very different models, for OS platform). They also have a fairly unique position, since none of their competitors control both the hardware and software to anywhere near the same extent as Apple. In contrast, Amazon's major competitors are all following the same tack -- make a device, make a store, sell both devices and ebooks.
That said: Apple is around the 5th largest computer seller in the US, their market share has increased over the last few years (7-10% depending on who's measuring), they are now sitting on a major cash hoard, and their market capitalization has swelled from $17bn in 2000 to $186bn now (which is not far off from Microsoft's, at $261bn). And despite their status as a minority platform, they still get major software vendors like Microsoft and Adobe to produce OS X-compatible apps.
I concur that few, if any, will say that Apple "dominates" the computer market (though it casts a long shadow and monopolizes media attention). But it's done quite well, for a platform that once had less than 5% of the market, and has ended up with an inordinate influence in some of the businesses it's jumped into, and every indication is that Apple will stick around for the foreseeable future.
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Originally Posted by kennyc
Note that you said "If" -- that really is the key isn't it. Only history will tell, but based on history, it is the common format that will win.
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Er... No. Unless you circularly define the "common format" as "the one that wins."
WMA hasn't "won" despite being used by more devices and by pretty much everyone except Apple. Real Audio didn't "lose" to a more common streaming format, people just stopped using it -- and now use diverse streaming methods (QT, podcasts, Flash-based players, etc). Blu-Ray didn't win its format war because it was in more "common use" (it wasn't -- HD sales were stronger for a time), it won because a few key corporations sided with Blu-Ray.
More to the point, I really can't think of many instances where a product that was lagging behind a market leader
specifically gained a prominent, let alone dominant, position primarily on its changing to a common format.
And what's the best example of this? Why, Amazon, of course.
Keeping in mind that they are a fairly recent entry to the market: Their digital music sales are MP3 files, the common DRM-free format that is compatible with pretty much everything, including iPods and iTunes. Their service is in 2nd place at, uh, 8% of digital music sales. (Oh, and most of that was gained from other services, not Apple.) Only 62% of the market left to capture! Piece of cake.
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Originally Posted by kennyc
One supplier cannot stand alone against the world.
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Sure they can, it happens all the time. Only Sony makes Playstations, only Nintendo makes Wii's, only Adobe makes Photoshop and InDesign and Illustrator and controls PDF technology, only Microsoft controls the Windows platform, Intel would do just fine if AMD didn't exist, etc.
Amazon has also battled with publishers before, e.g. selling used paper books and providing a link right on the same page where new books are sold. IIRC publishers were livid about it, but were unable to pressure Amazon into dropping it. Same for their attempts to force their own POD services down publisher's throats. Publishers are also tearing their hair out in the attempt to stop Amazon (and others) from making $9.99 the de facto ebook price. So it seems unlikely publishers will be able to force Amazon to change their ebook format, unless Amazon's market share craters and ends up in the single digits (which won't happen based on format alone).
As long as Amazon holds a significant portion of the market -- even just the US market -- publishers will have almost no choice except to convert their books. Freezing out 10-15% of the market isn't so bad; 40% is not an option though.