I concur that it is unlikely that one company will "win," if "winning" means market exclusivity -- especially with something as diverse as global book sales. However it is quite plausible for one company to gain enough market share to dominate and throw its weight around, despite publishers' attempts to avoid exactly that scenario.
I don't think people care very much about format though. It's a technical detail that is far less important to consumers than title availability, price and the overall quality of the experience. The real benefit of Sony and B&N switching to ePub are the publishers, who now have at least two fewer formats to deal with.
So a handful of ebook wonks may be delighted over more retailers switching to ePub, but I doubt it will result in a specific device really taking off in the market.
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