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I think, personally, that to talk about a single "winner" is rather odd. There's pretty much no area of the market that only has a single player in it. The eBook market will probably shake down to a few big players, and a number of smaller providers with more specialist offerings, but there's really no reason at all to suppose that there will be any one single "winner".
There's absolutely no reason that someone can't launch an ePub-based Reader with an online bookstore and wireless delivery.
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