Quote:
Originally Posted by DMcCunney
<blink> Prove it.
(You may well be right, but what evidence supports that conclusion?)
That "small minority of consumers" is a large enough market to keep Amazon, Sony. and several other manufacturers busy trying to supply and dominate it...
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Dennis
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Well the forrester research on all eBook readers is non-free, but excerpts quoted across several popular ebook related sites (such as teleread) estimate a total sales of all dedicated eBook devices at 3 million for the year 2009.
That said, a few months old active users using ebook data point from flurry shows the
iPhone at over 2.5 million and growing fast.
Of course numbers like this are hard to understand because frankly people could download an app and never use it, or could buy a kindle and let it gather dust. Plus, Amazon, most likely the most successful dedicated device seller, will not release sales numbers.
So take it as you wish. I also read statistics from another source, In-Stat showing in 2008 the entire dedicated reader market only reached 1 million units so that supports, with phenomenal growth, the 3 million unit mark for 2009. Considering there are already over 38 million iPhones, not counting iPod Touch, in the hands of consumers, even a paultry 10% reading books on them would decimate the entire dedicated device market. But, the point was about individual comparisons which means all dedicated devices have to take a slice of that 3 million. So based on various stats, you'd have to have an ebook reader doing more than 2.5 million units of the 3 million this year to even hold a candle to readers on the iPhone.
Anyway I don't think it's that big of a deal, and anyone with a realistic gaze on the market should understand that dedicated readers, though more popular now have certainly not exceeded alternative eReading choices. The real point here is that it's hard to have a meaningful conversation about the future of a device that's extremely niche, and is outsold by even the least successful devices in other markets, like the Zune selling as many units on its own in 2008 as the entire ebook reader market (1 million). It's clear we're nowhere near mass market acceptance of the products and until we are, there's no telling for certain what average consumers will actually want.
This 3 million units going out in '09 could be nearly entirely purchased by zealous standalone reader fans. Then, after an imaginary popularity explosion in '10, say 30 million units sell, and 27 million are bought by average consumers, and every single one of them complains about the lack of video or something. That's going to matter a lot more than any complaints on the mobile read forums about feature creep
