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Originally Posted by bill_mchale
Naturally, there is no way to be sure that a book will be profitable. That being said, copyright does protect an author's financial interests should the work actually be published and be successful (Obviously though, it will require a decent contract with the publisher). Likewise, it protects the interests of the publisher who spent a lot of time and money getting the author's manuscript ready for print.
How about we go into the book store and browse for some of the more obscure 19th century authors? Authors like Shakespeare, Mark Twain, Jane Austin, etc. are safe bets for publishers. They aren't going to hit it out of the park with sales, but in general, the various publishers know that they can probably sell X thousand copies a year. Unknown authors have an unkown sales potential. There is a lot of financial risk in publishing an unknown author (or in many cases, even a known author if he has not truly hit the big time). Copyright ensures that the publisher that is willing to take the risk has a fair chance to get rewarded for that risk (Note, I do agree that current copyright terms are too generous... but I do believe copyright itself is necessary).
It may not be the only economic model, but up to now, it has been an incredibly successful model.
Somehow, I think you don't really understand how the world works. Once a work goes out of copyright, there is no reason for any publishers to pay the author for the use of the author's work. Therefore, the author whose life is nearly over very likely incentive to create a new work. Even if the book is a masterpiece, he or his heirs will have no chance to profit from it. Likewise, why should the publisher take a chance on publishing it if the moment they publish it, other publishers simply copy their edition and start selling it for themselves (This is even more of a risk with ebooks).
Sure, there is the danger of too much success being a disincentive to write (or at least to publish). However, human nature, being what it is, pretty much suggests that most people will continue to write more books. Tom Clancy, Stephen King, Michael Crichten, Dan Brown and others have continues to write and publish long after their writing made them rich. On the flip side, there are many mid-list authors whose continued royalties provide just enough income to tide them over between books.
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Bill
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The problem with all this is that it fits the physical, object-based reality of old media publishing and cannot fit into a digital world. DRM doesn't work, the expectation of payment of any kind will only last for a short while, free sharing is on the increase.
Here's an example of how badly old media fails and what it has to lose in our short-attention span, everything available now culture (a culture I really like).
AngryRobot Books (a subsidiary of one of the majors although I didn't hold that against them) came on here awhile back to ask about ebooks and promote their upcoming wares. They were forthright and promised ebook versions in epub. A little while later they even provided samples. Great, I thought, here's a company (even if they are allied with the majors) that gets it. That gets what we want out of our digital reading experience. DRM free, open standards, and released in timely fashion.
Flash forward. No ebook. Not a post about an ebook. Date on the website says July 2009 and price TBC. If they're pushing this book anywhere digitally, then I haven't seen it, or been made aware. So they've lost me. I'm not going to wait around on a publishing company to actually deem a book important enough to release in a digital format, or even be bothered to make me aware it still exists.
Old publishing can't keep up with new media, it just can't, it moves too slow and is quite frankly, dull. And I'm not waiting around anymore for them to catch up, not when I have some of the greatest writers, the most progressive and interesting writers doing something online right now.
And what does this all have in relation to your examples? Simply this; I'm not the only one who feels this way, and there are plenty of others fed up with the way 'things were' as regard to copyright. Writers who want readers not a steady income. Writers who have something to say, not saying something because they're under contractual obligation. And readers who are growing up now who don't even recognize the copyrights that you think we still need. Copyrights that don't work in a digital world. Copyrights that can't last in a digital world.