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The real key will be convenience.
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Convenience and pervasion. The Kindle already is a mainstream item. Even people who don't own it know about it. 3 million devices is quite an optimistic number, but 2 million plus x are more than realistic, and I don't know of any reading device in Northern America or Europe which comes/came even close in terms of sales.
Sony's only chance to really compete against Amazon (and/or Apple, in the future) is to open a worldwide operating eBook store without any regional restrictions (still would be DRM'd, though) and offer at least one device with WiFi capability.
For now I'd say, the USA are Amazon's turf. eBook devices are just one of the many branches of Sony, thus it will be very interesting to watch how long Sony will stay in this business and how often they release new devices. If sales numbers don't meet the (sometimes unrealistic) expectations, Sony is likely to shut down any project.