It's almost two years since its introduction and we still don't know any official numbers of Kindle sales. This doesn't stop the wise guys from Wall Street to crunch their numbers through super-secret spreadsheet algorithms. So did Jim Friedland from the research house Cowen, who's estimating that we'll have 1.5 million active Kindle users by the end of 2009 -- a number to even double to 3.0 million by the end of 2010. Does this sounds crazy to you? No? Then how about this (emphasis mine):
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Within 5 years, he [Mr. Friedland] estimates, 17% of active Amazon customers will own Kindles - or 4% of the total U.S. population.... In five years, he predicts, Kindle device and content revenues will be 10% of North American sales, or about $2.3 billion in GAAP revenue.
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Well, let's say I am "cautiously optimistic." But after today's housing bubble I tend to take things from Wall Street with a hefty grain of salt.
[via
Barron's Blog]