Quote:
Originally Posted by Moejoe
Do you think it's going to be that long? I'm not so sure. The way everything related to technology is increasing above and beyond Moore's predictions has me thinking we could see radical shifts within ten years. And that's not to mention the rapid, tenfold increase in genetic sequencing over the last couple of years.
Theoretically though, I often wonder what Doctorow's position would be if tomorrow he woke up in a world where paper books were no longer produced. Would all his evangelising and support of 'free culture' melt in the face of his own economic realities?
|
Yes, I do. Why do you think it won't be that long?
Japan is years if not a full decade ahead of the United States technologically, and while people might be surfing the web on their cell-phones on the subway instead of reading manga, I don't think their printing industry shows even the most preliminary sign of being on the way out.
The publishing industry (albeit not necessarily individual publishers) in any country will be entirely safe from the threat of obsolescence until the day that eBook readers can display newspapers, magazines, textbooks, and other complex books (that cannot be made to reflow without a serious degradation of quality, for reasons to which there can be no solely technological/automated solutions) in the same quality as the paper editions.
And even once that does happen... the impact will probably still take at least a decade or several decades to be fully realized in any given country/region (and may possibly fail to make headway in the third-world for decades more, where a book printed for $1 is expensive, but a device costing more than $20-$30 may be out of reach for people below middle-class for their whole lives).
- Ahi