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Old 11-28-2006, 02:39 AM   #22
bowerbird
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bowerbird has been very, very naughtybowerbird has been very, very naughtybowerbird has been very, very naughty
 
Posts: 269
Karma: -273
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: los angeles
natchi said:
> For instance, as of this moment, there are at least
> 194 MobileReaders to whom it made sense enough.

i hope 194 customers is enough to make sony happy! ;+)

look, i really believe a $50 machine is a pipedream, and
that continuing to foster this myth is counterproductive.

here's my reasoning...

any dedicated machine will need:
1. a chip, etc.
2. a screen.
3. an operating system, etc.
4. miscellaneous plastic, etc.
5. marketing, shipping, handling.

a multi-purpose machine will need:
1. a chip, etc.
2. a screen.
3. an operating system, etc.
4. miscellaneous plastic, etc.
5. marketing, shipping, handling.

given these two(?) lists, i don't see where
the dedicated machine can squeeze costs.

there might be _tradeoffs_ that can be made.

the most obvious one is battery-life, but
as sony's machine shows, you could also
"opt out" of some capabilities (like search).

another one (which took us by surprise, eh?)
is the speed of screen-refresh on page-turns.

take away enough of these "niceties" and
maybe you could cut the cost enough, but
you've also cut the appeal of the machine.

so i'm not saying that it's _impossible_ that
someone could build a dedicated machine
that _might_ come in at a lower price-point,
and actually make enough sales to register.

but that advantage is likely to be shortlived...
so i don't think you'll _ever_ get critical mass.

it doesn't give me a great deal of joy to say it,
but a dedicated e-book-machine is unlikely
simply because there aren't enough readers
left out in our world to make the thing pay...

so the best hope for e-books is to piggyback
on some other form-factor that _is_ viable...

-bowerbird
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