Nice analysis, Bob. I hadn't spent nearly enough thinking on it to puzzle that out.
I'd only quibble enough to say that Connect's prices (when they're not just whacked) are probably what most folks would call "more" reasonable, as opposed to just "reasonable" -- personally, I think there not bad, but I agree I'd like to see them a bit lower with the DRM and format uncertainty that's currently built into them. But that's part of being an early adopter too, I s'pose.