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They are guesstimates based on hard numbers by respected analysts who are usually right about such things. You may disagree with them, but if you disagree with them by more than 50% you are very probably wrong.
One reason I suspect they haven't reached the million mark yet is because that's often a number to crow about ("Over 1 million Kindles sold!"). We'll see if Amazon makes such an announcement in the next 2-6 months.
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