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Originally Posted by tompe
The thing I did not believe was "analyze the reaction" because this seems to require a model of time and ability to extrapolate into the future and having preferences about the future.
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Actually many animals have at least some ability to extrapolate into the future - e.g. take a leash from its place and your dog will happily jump to attention, awaiting to get out. Another thing: Dogs doing something they know they are not allowed to do (e.g. eating out of the fridge). Many dogs will betray themselves by acting shameful and apologizing.
Granted - its a simple model, but its a model.
There is evidence suggesting that animals can analyze reactions and build models of the future - not only for some seconds, but over the course of hours or days (e.g. animals building food deposits, crows gathering tools that came useful, etc).
Most "animals can do xy stuff"-models are far too simple to really grasp what an animal can or cannot do - they are not humans, but some of them can do quite complex stuff.