Quote:
Originally Posted by kad032000
This has nothing to do with the causation/correlation point.
You said (basically) that more piracy will cause lost sales.
I showed an example where higher piracy showed no correlation to lost sales.
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The example does not show that. You don't know what sales would have been without piracy.
One way that it MIGHT be analyzed would be:
1. Find two movies of the same genre, that came out at roughly the same time in their respective years, and sold roughly the same number of box office tickets. (Straight revenues wouldn't work unless you adjusted for economic factors.)
2. Those two movies also must have their DVDs come out at roughly the same time in their respective years. Price, features, and marketing budget must be the same. You must make sure there are no other factors like awards, changes in actor popularity, etc.
3. Compare DVD sales numbers.
4. Compare pirating of those two DVDs. Not sure how you'd do that, but there are ways to make estimates.
5. If piracy hurts sales, DVD sales should be lower for the DVD with higher piracy. Normalize for growth in Internet population as well.
6. Rpeat this for lots and lots of movies.
7. Think of a dozen factors I haven't even listed above.
See? It's a virtually intractable problem. Too many variables changing to know exactly what's going on.