[kad032000]

Originally Posted by sirbruce

That's not my position, that's me feeling

That wasn't a statement of what *will* happen, but a statement of what I *believe* could happen.

Well I still feel that as people shift from pbooks to ebooks, ebook piracy is going to grow and become significantly more of a threat.

So as pbook sales shift to ebook sales, a growing percentage is "lost' due to ebook piracy.

To me, it sounded like it was what you believed will happen, not what you believed could happen. Your belief is your position. I believe otherwise, and that is my position.

If you are truly only saying that something could happen, then there is no point in discussing it further. Anything could happen.

I gave you reasons showing that if ebook piracy grows, it does necessarily mean it will have a more harmful impact

That certainly sounds like you believe something will happen.

I wasn't arguing 1 download = 1 lost sale, I was arguing 1 ebook sale = 1 lost pbook sale, and more ebook sales = more piracy, so converting from pbook sales to ebook sales = lost sales.

A = original ebook sales
B = original pbook sales
C = original effect of piracy
D = original total sales
=>
A + B - C = D

x = additional ebook sales
x1 = lost pbook sales
y = additional effect of piracy
z = total effect of piracy

You start with
x1 = -x
(C+y) = z

=>
(A+x) + (B-x) - (C + y) = D - z

You conclude
(D - z) < D

Problem? For z > 0, you must assume at least one of either C or y is > 0. To know that at least one of either C or Y is > 0, you would have to know z > 0. It's circular.

I ignored the circumstance which you made in detail earlier because I didn't recognize it as support for your "belief". It's pure speculation:

But now you have a lot more readers willing to read ebooks. And maybe they think ebooks shouldn't cost as much as pbooks, or they resent the DRM (you'll find many of them here). They'll also become more savvy to the nature of ebooks. And a lot more of them will learn that they can just get pirated ebooks for free. After all, they paid $300 for their reader!

So as pbook sales shift to ebook sales, a growing percentage is "lost' due to ebook piracy.

It sounds to me like you believe piracy will harm sales because of a scenario that could happen. Whereas I believe piracy will not harm sales because of similar situations in other industries. Which is the stronger position?

This is a discussion, not a debate.

Semantics. I am posting with the explicit reason to show anyone reading that there is more reason to believe in my position than in your position.