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Old 04-21-2009, 01:15 PM   #442
Greg Anos
Grand Sorcerer
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nekokami View Post
Interesting article here:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...69&ft=1&f=1006

One of the professors interviewed in this story works in my building. Sensible guy.

Well, here's the structural problem (from a dumb redneck's prejudices)...

Since the early 1980's and the ready advent of computing power, there has been a mindset on "Wall Street" that if you just mix the right set of derivative assets, you can make a small amount of money risk free!

Now in a broad sense, this is impossible, as risk never goes away. But when these people invent a new set of a derivative mix, they keep believing that this one will work.

So every new invention that gets used, it gets a huge amount of money poured through the "Magic Potion" to make the "Risk Free" money. The more money available to pour through, the bigger the bang when reality finally catches up with the "Magic Potion".

This caused the crash of 1987 (portfolio insurance), tha Asia crisis of 1997 (various currency derivative strategies) and the current mortgage crisis (2007) (credit default swaps).

This is why we've had so many "black swans" lately. Nobody wants to admit you can't get rid of risk. They just keep mixing a new "potion"....

So far, either nobody has figured this out, or (much more likely) nobody wants to explain why we've been having so many collapses...

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