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I'm not sure about epub, but I know for kepub 1 screen does = 1 page. If you want to test this you can increase or decrease any of the text rendering options and see the page count increase/decrease depending on the change.
What I would guess is happening is the sleep cover stats might not be counting some/all of the CSS while the reading progress within the book inadvertently takes the CSS into account because it's so much a part of what makes up the display of text. I'm not sure how much raw CSS is in the book, it'd need to take up roughly 70 screens to get these to align.
Another option is that something specific to the book is wonky, which the kepub tenderer doesn't like.
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