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I suspect that Amazon would like to do away with e-book downloads completely since they provide an easy escape from the Kindle ecosystem. Eliminating it all at once would lead to a huge customer backlash so they are doing it incrementally.
Here is my best guess at a possible progression:
Samples: You didn't buy it so you can't complain if you cannot download it.
Kindle Unlimited: Sideloading to offline devices prevents authors from being paid. No longer allowed.
New books: The book you just purchased does not support downloading. You can get an immediate refund if you want.
New devices: This Kindle does not support USB transfer mode.
End game: Hardly anyone is using download & transfer any more so we are eliminating that capability. If you are unhappy we can offer you a discount on a new Kindle.
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