[pwalker8]

This is getting pretty far afield from the original topic, but what the hey, it's an internet webboard, topic drift is what happens.

Consumers of streaming material are a lot like readers, there are a number of different groups that use things totally different. Some video consumers want new generic stuff, and don't re-watch shows or movies. They want new and original over quality. Some video consumers are looking for specific content, such as classic movies or tv show and aren't really interested in new content unless it's a hit show like The Mandalorian. Some binge watch on one service, cancel then move to the next, rotating as new shows appear. Some families want something like Disney+ for the kids and will keep it until the kids are no longer interested in Disney+. As I recall, the price tag for Amazon's new Tolkien series, which hopefully will make an appearance this fall, is over a billion dollars. That's going to be a huge bust if it doesn't pan out.

While I think there is room for all, the question is what's the break even point for spending billions of dollars on new content plus infrastructure? A high degree of churn is rarely a successful business model, yet there is a segment out there who are going to churn between services as long as there is no penalty for doing so. Binge watchers will exhaust a services catalogue of new shows pretty quickly.