Thread: Prime Day / Black Friday News
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Old 10-04-2020, 11:40 PM   #15
tubemonkey
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Amazon Prime Day and earlier holiday shopping will ding Black Friday, Cyber Monday

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It's beginning to look a lot like holiday shopping season even though it's not Halloween. You can thank evolving shopping habits, COVID-19, a delayed Amazon Prime Day, supply chain concerns, and crimped consumer and business budgets.

The moving parts are going to be enough to make Black Friday more of a 2020 retailing blip than the biggest shopping day of the year.

Simply put, the calendar is moving forward and households won't have as much to spend. The winners will be Amazon, which is likely to deliver its biggest fourth quarter in history, and retailers such as Walmart, Best Buy, and Target that have mastered buy online pickup in-store and other digital sales tactics.

In addition, Amazon's rivals are all planning sales around Prime Day. Those moves will just create a flywheel of demand that'll minimize the importance of retail's big holiday shopping days.
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Supply chains are still disrupted. Cowen analyst John Blackledge recapped the firm's conference call about Amazon demand in the fourth quarter. Blackledge said in a research note:

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Our expert noted that many sellers are scrambling to make inventory available for the both Prime Day and the rest of 4Q as he continues to see disruption in supply chains and in Amazon FC capacity. Specifically he noted those using weekly LTL (less than truckload) runs are having difficulty getting pickups. In addition, he noted issues in production, capacity, workers, and especially shipping containers from Asia to the US. On the Amazon side, he notes that warehouses are still throttling inbound capacity - via not accepting new product SKUs that lack historical sales data, limiting sellers to products that have a history of selling well, and then limiting how much they can send inbound to prevent inventory from building. Despite Amazon's 50% increase in fulfillment square feet capacity this year, he notes that capacity takes time to reach efficiency, and he continues to anticipate capacity constraints through the Holidays.
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