[murraypaul]

I have no skin in this game one way or the other, but the plain fact is that he hasn't released a book in the series for nine years, and we are now about six years past the initial estimate for the next book's release.

I think it is reasonable to be skeptical, especially given what he has said about release expectations.

"in September 2015 he had still considered the end-of-year deadline achievable."

"In March 2020, Martin stated that he was writing The Winds of Winter every day, and in June he hoped to be done with it in 2021."

So in 2015 he thought he was only 3 months away from completion, but 5 years later he is hoping to have it done in 20 months?

He has also said in an interview in February 2016:

"Q: “Hello, Mr. Martin! Sorry for the off-topic question, but will you be writing an episode for Season 7 of Game of Thrones?”

A: “I am not writing anything until I deliver WINDS OF WINTER. Teleplays, screenplays, short stories, introductions, forewords, nothing."

But has in fact released other works since then.

He may well finish the series, and there is nothing wrong with hoping and believing that he will.
But is is also perfectly reasonably for people to look at what has actually happened, and conclude it is likely that he won't. (Without meaning to be too crass, he is 71 and releasing books at a one-per-decade rate. He might not get the chance to complete the series at that rate.)