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Originally Posted by darryl
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Your assumption that authors who don't earn out on a regular basis soon become ex-authors is a highly doubtful one. It seems to be based on another fallacy, that a publisher makes no profit on books which do not earn out. No profit on 70% of its releases! I suspect Stephen King's new books and those by other mega successful authors are amongst those that never earn out. Yet Stephen King is still publishing. In fact, he just released yet another book a couple of days ago. How can this be?
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No one claimed that publishers don't make money on books that don't earn out, so no it's not a fallacy. You appear to have an idea that the 70% of books not earning out is evenly spread out over all books, including best sellers. I'm sure that there are some best sellers who do get huge advances that might not earn out, but I suspect that's more the famous celebrity whose book is ghost written by someone else, rather than someone like King who has a long track record and a built in fan base. Baen famously lost a bundle on Gettysburg by Gingrich.
I would say that the 70% is heavily weighted towards the mass of first or second time authors who likely sell a few thousand copies at best and who disappear as a writer after that.