Looking at this, and the devices Kobo currently has, or had until recently, I think the name change is to try and clarify things. At the moment, there is confusion over the name "Aura". It has been used for 6", 6.8" and 7.8" devices. There are two edition of some, and two versions of the second editions. Some have been waterproof, some have not been. I don't know if this means that "Aura" will be retired completely, or kept to a particular size.
As to which device it is replacing, I'm going with the Aura H2O Edition 2. That was released in May 2017. So, it and the Aura Edition 2 are oldest devices. There was a CPU update somewhere in there, but no other changes made. A more complete update, including a 300DPI screen is due. And as the H2O moniker has only been on the 6.8" device, this does give some continuity. I'd guess it will be a 7" screen using the same one the Oasis uses.
I don't think it will be a 6" device. The Clara HD is the newest device, so unless they want to update that to waterproof, I don't think it would be done. And I'd hope they would use "Clara H2O" for that. And I don't feel like it will be a replacement for the Aura Edition 2. I think we are more likely to see that disappear and only the Clara HD kept.
I do wonder if it could be a replacement for the Aura ONE. While another 7.8" or 8" device would seem to clash with the Forma, there might be a place for the button-free device. Based on discussion here, some love the Forma's buttons and form-factor, and other don't. If it uses a plastic substrate and doesn't have the light or touch calibration issues of the Aura ONE, it would be a good alternative. One thing that does point this way is that one report has that it has a 1200mAh battery. This is what the Aura ONE and Forma use. I assume this is to save weight. Using this in an Aura ONE replacement would be consistent.
Those are my thoughts and predictions. As to how accurate they are, within the last two weeks, I predicted there would be no new devices this year. So, probably not very.
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