Quote:
Originally Posted by Pajamaman
To a great extent I agree. A huge problem is the cost of training and education. The only politicians that are addressing it are outliers who are being dismissed or marginalized by political establishment.
But I argue that ultimately increased automation will not create more or as many jobs as it takes. Companies use robots because it makes them more profitable, and labor is a cost. 6 - 3 != 7.
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Ah, but you need to look at the full market, not just the same facility or industry. Sure, automation will decrease cost of any specific function--that's the whole point--but the savings won't go up in smoke never to be seen. Rather they will be reinvested, like Amazon and most others, in new products, new facilities, or merely more of the same.
Best example is the US productivity explosion of the 90's as computers and the internet transformed vast tracts of the landscape. other effects helped but it was the longest boom ever. Lots of positions were lost in some areas but more jobs opened in other business, mostly techno!ogy and services. Over 23M jobs over the decade.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990...ed_States_boom
What is going to happen is that new jobs that don't exist today will emerge and replace the lost jobs from automation and other changes. Some reports put new jobs as high as 65% 30 years from now.
Think about today and compare it to 30 yards ago: how many website designers, computer animators, additive manufacturing operators, etc existed then?
Or, how about these existing jobs expected to grow in coming times:
https://www.businessinsider.com/the-...ms-managers-14
Have you looked at the end credits of the big billion dollar movies? The horde of names and jobs involved? Those are good paying jobs scattered across America,Europe, Japan,Korea, Australia, New Zealand. Those movies cost a hundred to two hundred to make because tbose aren't sweatshop jobs. A single climatic scene on something like AVENGERS ENDGAME costs millions and takes months to produce on giant computer farms. Somebody has to build them, run them, maintain them. The movie might make a billion but the studio generally gets lets than half. Most of the rest goes to the theater operators, ushers ticket sales persons, cleaners, candy suppliers, etc.
Even agriculture is already tech-heavy. And getting more so.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rl77FVobxVI
There will be losses but new tech based jobs will outstrip them.
There's more to good 21st century jobs than turning screws, picking fruit, or filling boxds in warehouses. Little by little, year by year, the shape of the employment market will change...but to take full advantage of it, the educational system will need to adapt. And it isn't.
That is the problem.