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I think the choice of OS is rather important, but the main factor in the ongoing Smarthpone wars is probably going to be useability.
Most mobile devices these days have a lot of power, both software and hardware related. The trouble is that using the applications, doing data input and transferring files, surfing the web and listening to Audio/watching Video/TV is mostly cumbersoe because you don't have enough keys to input text quickly, don't have a touchscreen and can't click eblinks directly, have a touchscreen but can't use it properly because when you're sitting on a train or walking or whatever, you just can't hit the tiny onscreen keys...I think you get the picture.
I believe that the choice of OS is not unimportant, but the choice of input method and comfort of use (look at the device in the picture above...with the control keys right at the edge, using it one-handed is very probably completely impossible...) will be the main factor for the success of smartphones.
Even rather basic cellphones these days have all kinds of PIM apps onboard, but if there is no convenient way of actually getting your data in there, nobody is going to make proper use of them.
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