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I estimate that every 30 page refreshes drains something less than 1% battery.
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Well, that is not easily believable since I don't loose 10% of battery every time I turn 300 pages in a pdf, searching for something (it happened to me a few times that I had to search through so many pages).
But nonetheless I agree mainly with your calculations for the rest.
I my case, 1 hour reading at 15 % backlighting, then switching wifi on, syncing, switching wifi off again and reading additional 30 minutes, then and 22h30 hours of sleep conduct to 3 or 4 percent battery loss. And 24 hours of sleep represent 1 % battery loss.
I begin to think that battery loss within the sleep mode is more drastic when the page your Kobo is sleeping on contains a huge image or is part of a pdf (which are sometimes composed by heavy images). I had once over 15% loss in a night, and this is the only explanation I can think about.