I've never seen open source on any major technology work out for consumers. I know folks like to point to Linux and show how successful it is. But unless you are in IP security or you are a computer geek, you probably couldn't run Linux. It simply is not popular among the average computer consumers. To think that any open source, non-publishing industry eBook standard will ever take off and be a major benefit to consumers is pure fantasy. It will simply be just another of the 30+ standards already in existence.

The problem isn't coming up with an eBook standard. We already have a pretty good one that the publishers support. The problem is getting companies like Microsoft, Adobe, MobiPocket, et cetera to not force consumers to use their particular interpretation, that is proprietary software, to read eBooks. These companies make money off of selling their software to companies and individuals to create eBooks that are then readable only with their respective readers.

What is missing, as far as I can tell, is a powerful documentation suite capable of producing multiple versions of the same document. For example, a program like FrameMaker for producing eBooks. The problem is, companies like MobiPocket, Microsoft, and eBook Studio or not going to share their proprietary formats with any company that wants to develop an application to create multiformatted eBooks. It will cut into their profit.

So what really needs to happen is that the publishing industry needs to develop an eBook standard, including encryption methodology and copyright protection, and then develop the software to publish eBooks in this standard. The publishing industry, afterall, is their industry. It is up to them to unite and take the bull by the horns. No software company will ever be able to pull this off, either alone or through a consortium. It must originate from, and be controlled by the big publishing giants working together. Little mom and pop publishing houses will have no impact on the industry. They simply don't sell enough books.

Bottomline is that I don't think this will happen anytime soon, if ever. I think we will continue to see dozens of competing products and formats unless the publishing giants wake up and realize just how much money they can make selling eBooks. I suspect they will ignore eBooks until it is almost too late, much like Kodak and many other film manufacturers ignored digital photography until they were nearly bankrupt. The time will probably come when consumers will demand eBooks. Until then expect a very slow adoption by an industry that has its roots planted over six centuries deep in ink and paper publishing.

To reiterate my main point: Standardization of eBooks publishing cannot, will not, must not initiate at the hands of those who will not do the publishing. It must and will initiate from the publishing giants, or it will not initiate at all.