Quote:
Originally Posted by darryl
Yes. Agents prospered greatly when publishers effectively outsourced the slush pile to them. Unlike many of their later decisions, this was great business. Outsource and have the authors pay for it? Why on earth didn't they think of it before? So of course except for a very lucky few authors all who wanted to be published at all in those dark times had to have an agent, like it or not. So, of course, agents became entrenched as part of the traditional publishing process. Now, of course, traditional publication is no longer the only game in town, and is still fast losing ground. Still, if you are a new author seeking traditional publication now, particularly with the Big 5, you probably still need an agent. Or, of course, you could self-publish and if you are successful you will likely then receive traditional offers. This, I think, is where most literary agents are going to meet their doom. As more authors start with self-publishing or some of the more innovative traditional publishers who don't insist on dealing with agents, I expect that the larger publishers will have to source their books from these established authors. When approached, these authors won't need to be introduced by an agent. They will likely employ professionals for a fee rather than an agent for 15% of everything. If, of course, they are interested in being traditionally published at all.
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The authors don't actually pay for the slush piles. Agents get paid a percentage of any contract, so you only pay if you get a contract. That's pretty much the standard way that agents work, in sports, real estate, contract firms or literary.
If you are a good author, who doesn't mind handling all the business details and knows how to market yourself and build a readership, then sure indie works. I'm not so sure there are a ton of writers in that boat. It's pretty hard to get noticed just throwing your book out on Amazon and sitting back waiting for the money to roll in. Marketing your books is hard work. Book discovery is the big unsolved piece of the puzzle. People are a lot more likely to try a book from a publisher they like than some random author in the Kindle store. That is one of the reasons that Baen had so many successful new authors, that and the Baen monthly bundle.
I still think that publishing will re-fragment as the capital cost of publishing drop. That could change the dynamics a bit as small publishers cut out the middle man/agents. That would involve a pretty big change in the way that business is done though.