Quote:
Originally Posted by =X=
Not sure if I agree. I'm in agreement more with Bezos, paper will not go away just like horses have not gone away. There will always be a use for them, just not mainstream. ...
I think this will happen in about 10 years.
=X=
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About 60% of homes in the USA have a computer. (
55% a few years ago; I've heard the 60% number on tv news recently.)
The other 40%, including
half of the African American and Latino population, will not be replacing their pbooks with ebooks anytime soon.
I think people who've had computers for 10 years or more, and those who work in technical industries where computers are everywhere, tend to think "everyone has them" and forget that there are huge sections of the populace who do not. (I'm occasionally guilty of this.) This is especially true in rural areas and less-developed nations. And I don't expect dedicated ebook devices to get any notable penetration into the non-computer-owning market.
However, I do expect big changes in the pbook industries soon. The high-tech, high-disposable-income customers are the category most likely to switch to ebooks, and that's a very important demographic for publishers. Some
types of pbooks will probably be made less as publishers realize their customers are more likely to buy ebook versions. However, until ebooks make good gifts, I don't think they'll start to dominate
any section of the marketplace.
(I know some places allow ebook purchases as gifts. As far as I've been able to sort out, they all have hassles. And I don't think any of them have come up with the idea of a free, printable PDF "gift card" that says "You have an Ebook! [pic of book cover] [Title] by [Author] is available for you to download at [url]!)