The Kindle's AZW format is exactly MOBI. Many of the Kindle's ebooks come from MobiPocket (i.e. the publishers submit them to MobiPocket, not Kindle). Note also that not all MOBI's come from MobiPocket, e.g. Overdrive distributes in MOBI format. Some publishers rely on distributors like Overdrive to convert a "master" version to formats like MOBI.
There are some Kindle exclusives, and some non-exclusives which may look that way. For example O'Reilly ebooks sell at the Kindle store and not at other ebook stores, but you can get a DRM-free 3 format bundle (PDF, ePub, MOBI) directly from O'Reilly. Also, exclusives are usually for a limited time. If a publisher has a MOBI (AZW) version, why would they want to ignore MOBI as a sales outlet?
Since Amazon owns MobiPocket, anything could happen in the future. Amazon could close MobiPocket in favor of Kindle, Amazon could extend AZW to make it different from MOBI, etcetera.
At present, what is happening is that MOBI is probably stronger because of the Kindle. The upcoming extension of the Kindle store to (some) cell phones is probably a danger sign for Mobipocket's longevity though.
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