Jon, I think the topic of discussion here was setting up his TOC. So, semantically, a <div> is more correct than a <p>... the link is not a "paragraph"... it is an item in a list of links. So, semantically the more correct tag would be the <li>.
However, as I mentioned above, you can certainly use just about
any tag and the right CSS will get it to look how you want... it just wouldn't be the
correct-est way...