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Old 02-06-2009, 01:31 PM   #163
Elfwreck
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Posts: 5,187
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Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: SF Bay Area, California, USA
Device: Pocketbook Touch HD3 (Past: Kobo Mini, PEZ, PRS-505, Clié)
I don't think it'll be as little as 20 years before ebooks are the standard; pbooks have a *lot* of inertia behind them. (Internet news has not replaced TV or newspaper news, nor does it look like it's about to.)

Radio didn't vanish when television showed up, but it did change. Pulp magazines didn't vanish when color got cheap enough to use that--but there are less of them now, and they're different. And candles and oil lamps haven't vanished now that we have electric lights. Pbooks are going to be useful for a long, long time. They have an accessibility and permanence that ebooks can't rival.

I'm aware that most reading isn't done with permanence in mind, and most readers aren't concerned with universal accessibility, just their own personal version. But the lack of a universal format (and I expect that to stick around, just like the lack of a universal OS)will continue to be a distraction and barrier, and the lack of coherent copyright laws will continue to hinder progress in development and public use. I think the combination of these things will add substantial time to ebooks becoming near-universal.

I suppose that could change if someone comes up with a $150 e-ink reader that could be distributed at public schools instead of textbooks.
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