Quote:
Originally Posted by pwalker8
A majority of works earn most of what they will earn within the first year or two of a release. Ebooks change that dynamic a little bit, but not much. Some authors generate a nice cash flow from their backlist books, but not many.
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This is the point the Productivity Commission makes, if anyone has read the actual report.
"For example, the addition of twenty years of protection many years in the future, such as occurred when Australia increased term from life plus 50 years to life plus 70 years (a requirement introduced with the Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement) only increases average revenue by 0.33 per cent [...]
Indeed, evidence suggests the vast majority of works do not make commercial returns beyond their first couple of years on the market (Australian Copyright Council, sub. 36). The ABS estimates:
[...]
• literary works provide returns for between 1.4 and 5 years on average. Three quarters of original titles are retired after a year and by 2 years, 90 per cent of originals are out of print. [...]
Landes and Posner (2002) argue a term of around 25 years enables rights holders to generate revenue comparable to what they would receive in perpetuity (in present value terms), without imposing onerous costs on consumers5 and suggests that a term of around 25 years is sufficient to incentivise creative effort. However, this is only an indicative period because the lower the discount rate used, the greater the term should be, and the authors used a relatively high real discount rate. In addition, any estimate of optimal term duration must make assumptions about the pattern of demand for the works over time — a difficult task. The truly ‘optimal’ period may accordingly be more or less than 25 years after creation but it is completely implausible it could ever be 70 years after death."
I'm guessing that the only works still earning significantly 10-20 years after the death of an author are the Harry-Potter-level blockbusters. In which case I'm guessing that dependent heirs have been rather well cared for already by the rewards earned during the author's lifetime.