Quote:
Originally Posted by Fbone
That's true. They can't afford to wait for the long tail.
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Uh-huh.
The numbers favor the extremes: BAEN puts out maybe sixty new titles a year and their entire 30 year active catalog is maybe 2000 titles. The randy penguin pops out 14-15,000 in one year. They can afford to throw darts all over and, like a stop clocked, be right at least sometimes. BAEN can't afford many misses so they have to really know their market and where it is headed. Their backlist alone probably won't cover their overhead.
On the flip side, Indies don't have the ongoing costs of a traditional publisher; most of their expenses are one-time up-front costs. Whatever long tail sales deliver is almost pure profit (after taxes). And Indies don't need a deep fanbase to survive. No need to be the idol of millions to make a decent middle class income if they build up a catalog of a dozen or so good titles over a few years and acquire a few hundred followers.
Getting noticed is always going to be a challenge (always has been) but with the way the market is fragmenting there is going to be a lot of opportunity in the niches for those that can survive on low volumes. There will be room for "cottage industry" players and a couple giant "carpet bombers" but everybody in the middle is at long term risk.