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Old 01-23-2016, 03:37 PM   #70
fjtorres
Grand Sorcerer
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I wouldn't be so sure the market is shrinking.

Nobody can know that for sure without knowing the death rate and usage rate of existing devices. All we know if that sales of new devices is lower than in the peak adoption years but we don't know how many of the new devices are going to new users and how many are going to existing users replacing broken devices.

Back in the days when hardly anybody had ereaders it was a safe bet that the vast majority of sales were to new users. To be able to say that the market is shrinking one would need to know for a fact that all new sales were either replacements for dead devices or that more people were abandoning eink than are adopting them for the first time. And that's not something even Amazon can say for certain given that they are not the sole source of ebooks for their readers and given the changes in readers book buying behavior. (I think it's pretty clear that hoarding free books is one behavior in decline, for example.)

At most, one can say that a lot of ebook consumption has moved to multipurpose devices because ebook reading is no longer just the domain of hobbyists (well, in the US/UK, anyway) or even just avid readers who can justify the cost of a dedicated device, but has spread to casual readers who are taking advantage of apps to read the occasional ebook on devices acquired for other purposes. And since one key fact of the commercial book business is that casual readers matter a lot because while they individually buy few books, there are a whole lot more of them than avid readers and that means that their reading habits matter. But that dies not negate that the avid readers using dedicated reading devices are essential to a healthy ebook ecosystem: B&N made that very clear the last time they bragged about their active accounts.

The number of avid readers may be lower but their high consumption of ebooks means their influence is multiplied and so is the importance of their reading device of choice. So, again, absent any real evidence that avid readers are turning to tablets en masse we can't say the ereader market is shrinking just because more ebook reading is happening on tablets and phones.

I seriously doubt Amazon will never release a new generation of Kindles, if only for marketing reasons. There will most definitely be a new Paperwhite at somepoint,probably this year. There will probably be a new Voyage or equivalent at some point but it isn't a certainty. Maybe the market for premium readers isn't big enough to justify a new design. And besides, there is always Liquavista.

The likeliest explanation for why Amazon isn't adding new features is simply that new features won't sell more Kindles.

Kindles sell because of the ebookstore, not because of the number of features. That has never been Amazon's strategy. They sell because of outdoor readability, the long battery life, the low eyestrain (for those subject to it) and because of the form factor. All of which are generic to the screen tech. It is the bookstore that has always driven Kindle sales over other brands, not the hardware or the software.

Focusing on hardware or software is missing the forest for the trees.

Want to see Amazon's primary focus in ebooks? Look to the scandal of the week, the handwringing over flagging substandard ebooks. And look at all the ways they keep trying to attract and hold Indie authors: Kindle worlds, Kindle scout, Kindle Unlimited, matchbook, etc.

How many of those are being matched at Kobo? Apple? Google? Elsewhere?

It's the bookstore first.
Kindles second.
Apps third.
Goodreads fourth.
One might disagree with their priorities but it's working for them and ultimately that is why there is all the whining.
The have the top store and everything else flows from there.
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