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Originally Posted by DMcCunney
Won't happen. Apple has tried as hard as it can to build brand loyalty, and succeeded. It will take a lot more than one mistake to get folks to switch.
His teenage daughter likely wouldn't touch a Windows Phone device with a stick. (And his teenage daughter is far more representative of the overall market than he is.)
Apple still defines cool for a major part of the market.
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And how do teenage daughters keep paying for €600 phones? At some point, someone will realise that better or equal products can be had for less money.
I'm specifically looking at Leica as an example. The epitome of photography. If you had a Leica, you had 'it'. Until 'it' suddenly was surpassed in the 70's, and the company was near to bankrupcy several times.
Their competitor, Carl Zeiss, just goes "chug... chug... chug...", producing lenses that hit 98% of Leica's quality for 20% of the price, for a gazillion camera's, branching out into a huge array of different fields as well, from spectacles to microscopes to lenses used in spacecrafts.
Now, Carl Zeiss is almost too big to ever fail, while Leica is mainly supported by rich Americans and Asians. As soon as someone sees fit to introduce a real rangefinder for a normal price (under €2000 or so, instead of Leica's €4700), it's bye bye for Leica. Everybody will switch to that rangefinder using Zeiss or Voigtländer lenses.
At some point, I see the same happening to the iPhone. I firmly believe that at some point within the next 20 years or so, Apple will be a marginal player at best, if they don't bring anything other besides new iPhones and tablets. Their 6-7% market share on the desktop/laptop is not enough.
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It won't.
First, MS has its fingers in an assortment of pies. See CRussell's comment.
Second, people are adopting Win10.
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I think it would. Microsoft is betting everything on Windows 10. That is why they are giving it away. If people and businesses won't upgrade, they will have a new Windows XP-like problem at their hands in 2020, called Windows 7.
Windows 10 being free is the only reason people are upgrading, despite the fact that it phones home so much. It's not for nothing tools like Shutup10 and tips how to lock down Windows 10 are appearing by the dozens.
Windows 8.x is hated. If Windows 10 wasn't free, nobody would upgrade to it (including myself, on my current computers), and the 2020 Windows 7 monster would be a real threat.
Microsoft HAS to make Windows 10 work. If they don't, most of the IT world will be stuck in 2009 for another 10 years from now.